Falling Treasury bill rates could disrupt forex market – Peter Quartey

Some market analysts have raised concerns over the recent downward trend in treasury bill rates, cautioning that it could have unintended consequences on the economy, particularly the foreign exchange market.

The declining yields, which contrast with other key economic indicators, may trigger shifts in investor behavior and put pressure on the cedi.

Professor Peter Quartey, Director of the Institute for Statistical, Social and Economic Research (ISSER), warned that the government’s revised borrowing strategy must be carefully managed to prevent market destabilization.

“Let’s not celebrate this artificial decline in the Treasury bill rate; it is not sustainable. Let’s allow market forces to work. If not, it will put pressure on the exchange rate because there will be currency substitution,” he stated.

He further explained: “A recent check with my bank reveals that fixed deposits attract an interest of 10 percent, but inflation is 23 percent. Do you think if someone has money, they will give it to you for 10 percent? And so people have started buying the dollar to store.”

Prof. Quartey emphasized that the pace of Treasury bill rate reductions must be strategically monitored to avoid market shocks.

“If we don’t check this trend, it’s going to create problems for the monetary authority. There could be capital flight; people who have bought bonds will just sell and leave,” he cautioned.

Meanwhile, the latest auction showed that the yield on the 91-day T-bill declined by only 12 basis points to 15.85%.

However, the rate on the 182-day bill remained unchanged at 16.92%, while the yield on the 364-day bill fell marginally from 18.96% to 18.84%.