Change Naana Opoku-Agyemang if you want to win, says Ben Ephson to Mahama

Mr Ben Ephson, pollster and Managing Editor of the Dispatch, has advised former President John Dramani Mahama not to re-select Professor Naana Opoku-Agyemang as his running mate if he wants to win the next elections.

Changing the running mate is one of the things Mr Mahama can do to reverse the findings of the Economist and Intelligence Unit (EIU) report, which indicated that the National Democratic Congress (NDC) will win the elections but only if Mr Mahama is not the party’s presidential candidate.

According to the EIU, “our baseline forecast is that ongoing public dissatisfaction with the slow pace of improvements in governance—such as infrastructure development, job creation, and corruption reduction—will trigger anti-incumbency factors and push the electorate to seek a change.”

“As a result, the NDC has a reasonable chance of winning the 2024 elections,” the EIU stated.

The report also stated that, despite a highly acrimonious party-political landscape, it expects Ghana’s underlying political stability to last over the forecast period.

According to the EIU, the fierce rivalry between the two major parties—the ruling New Patriotic Party (NPP) and the opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC)—will remain a central feature of the political scene.

“A razor-thin NPP-led working majority in parliament (138 out of 275 seats) suggests that reaching agreement on contentious reforms, including planned tax increases, will be difficult.” In November 2021, the minority government rejected the proposed 2022 budget bill due to the inclusion of an electronic-transaction levy (e-levy); this was later reversed, and the 2022 budget bill was passed by an NPP-led majority, albeit without the e-levy clause.

“Similar issues with reaching consensus on major legislation will slow policymaking and put the government’s strength to the test for the remainder of its term” (until 2024). We anticipate a transfer of power to the NDC in the 2024 elections, driven by anti-incumbency factors and public dissatisfaction with the current government.

“However, regardless of who remains in power, we anticipate policy continuity in the medium term, with a focus on improving food security, industrialization, and economic diversification.” “The new government will face similar challenges to its predecessor, but overall political stability will prevail,” according to the report.

It went on to say that rising prices are a source of public dissatisfaction with the government (stoked further by the Russia-Ukraine war).

In an interview with TV3, Mr Ephson stated, “Mahama can do a few things that could change the EIU findings.” If he chooses a new running mate, the dynamics will change.”

He also stated that Mr Mahama was defeated in the 2020 general elections because he failed to state clearly his position on the implementation of the free senior high school program.

According to him, many people were skeptical of Mr Mahama’s plan for free SHS, which resulted in “his heavy defeat, the over 500,000 votes margin he suffered.”

“One thing is certain: Mahama’s inability to articulate his views on free SHS cost him dearly in 2020.” Many people believed that if Mahama won, he would tamper with the free SHS, possibly canceling it, which would cost Mahama a lot of money,” he said.